Am I surprised by the results of Tuesday's elections? No, not really. Americans have historically always voted for the opposing party when they start to see Washington bend in a direction more left or more right than center. So if the Democrats control both the Presidency and Congress, they'll tolerate it up until the point in which it pushes to far from center. They'll let Republicans control the Presidency and Congress until it gets too far right from the center. So we as Americans (and we do it EVERY time) will vote the dominant party out of office in order to maintain the status quo of the moderate center. We say that we're frustrated with the way that Washington works, but we as voters influence the way that Washington works - it is a direct reflection of the majority of public opinion - especially the House of Representatives. Which is EXACTLY the way it was designed by the Founding Fathers. The beauty of our political system is that it prevents the tyranny of the minority from ever taking too strong of a hold over the government.
Obama's best shot to get any new laws and policies through Congress were in these first two years. I believe his administration in their naivete thought they could enact sweeping reforms and "change" in the country without having to play the political game in Washington (which sort of flabbergasts me considering Obama himself was a senator prior to becoming President, so he should have known that). People both from the right and the left bombard him with accusations that he is either the worst president in US history or that he hasn't done "enough". I hold either beliefs or thoughts against him. Do I agree with the laws, platforms, and policies - both domestic and international - that he has enacted since taking office? No, not really. Am I concerned about the size of the national debt and no coherent plan on how to attack that without further destabilizing the income of middle class Americans (which, by the way, I consider a family with a dual income of $250k middle class, not wealthy)? Yes, I am. Our current economic policies are very worrisome - inflation, deflation, exports, imports, strength/weakness of the dollar, stock market, housing industry, bank policy, consumer spending power, etc - it is all up in the air. But do I totally blame Obama for the state of our economy? No. Do I blame Bush? No. The writing was all over the place in Clinton's administration, Bush Sr., etc. I really blame Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve who should have known better. But this cycle, this recession with all of its hardship is a byproduct of our capitalist economic system - and are you going to really change that? Are you going to limit people's ability to succeed in the corporate world and their capability of making a buck? Yes, there are deep-seeded problems with it...but, isn't that more of a reflection of base human nature than the economic system itself? But I digress....
Bottom line - the election results don't surprise me. I'm more surprised that Obama and his advisers would be surprised or remorse - he/they should have been expecting it. This is why history is so important to learn and understand - because if he had been expecting it, he could have planned for it and figured out a way to adapt to the inevitably of a new party coming to Washington. How awesome would it have been during the press conference that he gave today if he had said "Oh, I knew this was going to happen. This happens to every single sitting president in modern American history. In fact, I welcome this new change. I understand that this is a statement by the majority of Americans that they are not happy, and my administration is going to reach out across the aisle to learn and work together on these pressing issues." Sure, that would flip the diehard liberals on their heads - but here's the thing - extreme minorities may have loud voices but they are NOT reflective of the majority! So alienate the minority - for they'll find some reason to alienate themselves anyway - and work with the majority. That's the only way to work the "system" of Washington.
But that's just my take. What's yours?
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Where's Robin Hood When You Need Him?
I am outraged. The practices that have gone on, both encouraged by the industry itself and deregulation by the Congress that it pays billions of dollars to, have led to a business system that is so unbelievably unethical. There is a way to make money honorably and then there is the way that the banking industry has decided to make a profit, which is upon the backs of poor people who can't afford the high interest rates that they get charged once they miss one payment. They end up getting sucked into an endless, bottomless abyss cycle of debt that they have a slim chance of escaping on their own, unless they declare bankruptcy and thus effectively wipe away any chance of securing credit again! My heart broke as I saw the journalist interview Citizen Joe after Citizen Joe and the sad stories of how they never missed a bill payment until one day, something happened (because life does happen). This one guy for instance always paid his bills on time his entire life. Then he got tonsil cancer. He battled through the treatment successfully, but then was laid off from his job. Now unemployed, he missed one payment...and then one more...and then another - each time with his interest rate climbing higher and penalty fee after penalty fee being added to the bill. It is highway robbery.
The banking industry's defense is that they have to make money somehow. How are they going to make a profit? They claim that the fees and terms of the credit card contract are clearly spelled out.
But then you see the piece of paper that they send with their credit card "offers" and it's all in the tiniest print, with terms only a person with a finance degree can truly understand. And the kicker is that it's purposefully designed that way.
The Frontline program then addressed the credit card reform that Congress passed in 2009. But here is where politics comes into play - and by politics, I mean lobbyists (who prey upon both sides of the aisle, both Democrat and Republican). The problem with getting a bill through the houses of Congress is that they can become derailed by money. And the money is held by the lobbyists and industries that are affected by these bills - industries like the banking industry. Through compromise and bipartisanship (or not) a bill gets through both houses of Congress - where it can than be derailed by the President, who may or may not sign it. Sometimes the White House is influential in getting the bills passed - sometimes they are influential in stopping the legislation from even making it out of committee. It really is a miracle that any law ever gets passed with these restrictions.
But significant bills can get passed - and that's when the constituency arises and makes their voice more powerful than the lobbyists of the industry that is against its reform. The problem with the credit card reform bill that was passed in 2009 was that it was given 8 months before it went into effect. What do you think the banks did during that 8 months? If you guessed they figured out the loopholes of the bill, you would be correct. The bill still allows them to raise their interest rates arbitrarily and without any forewarning.
And it's not just the regular individual citizen that is affected - Frontline detailed a story about a small homebuilder who relied on a flow of credit to pay his employees, purchase building materials, etc. He now stands on the precipice of having to close down his business because of the hike in interest rates. He can't pay his employees because his credit card bill is so high - how is a business supposed to forecast or build a business plan when it may have an ever-decreasing cash flow but they can't plan for how much it will decrease by? It hurts entrepreneurs and other small businesses - the very people that a strong economy is built upon.
The only thing that gives me hope against the power of the banking industry lobbyists is that the fact that this small reform bill was passed. It is a first step. Any reform movements that have gone on to have a significant impact on society always started off small and with small legislation. The lobbyists can be overcome by an outraged public that continuously pushes for even stronger reform -and that is the stage where we find ourselves now. Will the public push hard for more economic reform? Or will Wall Street be allowed to continue on its merry way?
Closing thought - Timothy Geithner is a crook and should not be in charge of the Treasury Department of the United States. The banking industry must have jumped for joy when his nomination passed through Congress. If Obama was really serious about reforming the economy and the banking industry that helped spiral us into the recession, he should have pushed through that rarest of commodities - a banker with integrity - a Robin Hood, if you will.
*And sorry for such a long post*
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Thoughts for a Wednesday
Well, it's time for this week's edition of "Thoughts for a Wednesday" since I only seem to post on Wednesdays lately. And so with no further ado, hear some things I've run across/been kicking around in my head.
1 - Money can bring out the worst in people. The new facts that have come to light about the whole salmonella/peanut butter scandal are absolutely disgusting. When the bottom line becomes more important than doing the right thing, like protecting our food supply from easily preventable diseases, then a price should be paid by those that perpetrated this crime. In a way, this is just as much a form of terrorism as seizing airplanes and crashing them into buildings.
Then you have the whole $50 billion Ponzi scheme perpetrated by Bernie Madoff. Now it seems that his wife withdrew $15 million of real cash right before he turned himself in. It is unbelievable what some people can get away with. And don't even get me started with the members of Congress - whoops, I mean the elected members of the Tax Dodgers club. It kills me that half of my hard-earned paycheck goes to someplace in DC, while these people get away without paying their due.
2 - Last night I saw the premiere of "T.I.'s Road to Redemption: 45 Days to Go" on MTV. Wow. If you judge from a premiere of a show, this is one chilling, amazing docu-reality show. For those who don't know, T.I. is a rapper who was convicted last year by the federal government of possessing firearms, which he was not allowed to have since he was a convicted felon at the time. You might know him from his current hit song with Rihanna, "Live Your Life". This show is as much about him explaining where he has come from and why he did what he did and the 1000 hours of community service that he must perform, as it is about his mission to go to 7 strangers and help them turn their lives away from "the streets" to a more stable and full life. Last night's episode focused on this kid that he knew named Lil' Pee Wee who was a hustler. Talk about intensity. I don't want to give too much away because I want people to see it for themselves. But let me just say that it opened my eyes and broke my heart to actually see the reality of this way of life that I am sheltered from in my little small town. Much like my trip to Nicaragua back in 2004 threw real third world poverty in my face, this showed me a side of American life that was hard to see.
3 - I maintain that The Dark Knight was robbed. There is no way that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button should have 13 nominations, except maybe in the makeup category. And if you need any further proof, check out this video that my friend Rebekah pointed out to me.
4 - I feel really sad about the whole Chris Brown/Rihanna situation. They seemed like such a cute couple, two really good, cool, and immensely talented people. It makes you wonder what in the world happened that it would make Chris Brown do what it seems that he did? It makes me wonder if he will be able to bounce back from this. I sort of hope so, because it again just makes me so sad to see such a talent go to waste because of a really, really, really stupid decision. But what he is being accused of is pretty serious stuff. I guess we will just have to wait and see, but again, what a real, real shame.
5 - Lost is on tonight!!!! Hallelujah and holler-ation - cannot flippin' wait. This must be the real reason why I have subconsciously only been posting on Wednesdays, just so that I can continue to promote the best television show on TV. Also, no lie, Rebekah and I literally spent probably 3 of our 4 hour drive to Wilmington/Carolina Beach this past weekend theorizing about all the different loose ends and mysteries of the show. If you want a semi-spoiler of where this show will be going this season, check out this latest story on www.ew.com, the best site to find whacked out theories and recaps of my favorite show.
6 - My love affair with ABDC still continues. I literally could and do watch the reruns of this show over and over and over again and I am continuously amazed by these kids' talent. I wish I had some sense of rhythm like they do. But alas, my role seems to be relegated to just appreciating their off-the-charts talent. I believe that the final two is going to come down to Beat Freaks and Qwest crew - they are both just ridiculously awesome.
1 - Money can bring out the worst in people. The new facts that have come to light about the whole salmonella/peanut butter scandal are absolutely disgusting. When the bottom line becomes more important than doing the right thing, like protecting our food supply from easily preventable diseases, then a price should be paid by those that perpetrated this crime. In a way, this is just as much a form of terrorism as seizing airplanes and crashing them into buildings.
Then you have the whole $50 billion Ponzi scheme perpetrated by Bernie Madoff. Now it seems that his wife withdrew $15 million of real cash right before he turned himself in. It is unbelievable what some people can get away with. And don't even get me started with the members of Congress - whoops, I mean the elected members of the Tax Dodgers club. It kills me that half of my hard-earned paycheck goes to someplace in DC, while these people get away without paying their due.
2 - Last night I saw the premiere of "T.I.'s Road to Redemption: 45 Days to Go" on MTV. Wow. If you judge from a premiere of a show, this is one chilling, amazing docu-reality show. For those who don't know, T.I. is a rapper who was convicted last year by the federal government of possessing firearms, which he was not allowed to have since he was a convicted felon at the time. You might know him from his current hit song with Rihanna, "Live Your Life". This show is as much about him explaining where he has come from and why he did what he did and the 1000 hours of community service that he must perform, as it is about his mission to go to 7 strangers and help them turn their lives away from "the streets" to a more stable and full life. Last night's episode focused on this kid that he knew named Lil' Pee Wee who was a hustler. Talk about intensity. I don't want to give too much away because I want people to see it for themselves. But let me just say that it opened my eyes and broke my heart to actually see the reality of this way of life that I am sheltered from in my little small town. Much like my trip to Nicaragua back in 2004 threw real third world poverty in my face, this showed me a side of American life that was hard to see.
3 - I maintain that The Dark Knight was robbed. There is no way that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button should have 13 nominations, except maybe in the makeup category. And if you need any further proof, check out this video that my friend Rebekah pointed out to me.
4 - I feel really sad about the whole Chris Brown/Rihanna situation. They seemed like such a cute couple, two really good, cool, and immensely talented people. It makes you wonder what in the world happened that it would make Chris Brown do what it seems that he did? It makes me wonder if he will be able to bounce back from this. I sort of hope so, because it again just makes me so sad to see such a talent go to waste because of a really, really, really stupid decision. But what he is being accused of is pretty serious stuff. I guess we will just have to wait and see, but again, what a real, real shame.
5 - Lost is on tonight!!!! Hallelujah and holler-ation - cannot flippin' wait. This must be the real reason why I have subconsciously only been posting on Wednesdays, just so that I can continue to promote the best television show on TV. Also, no lie, Rebekah and I literally spent probably 3 of our 4 hour drive to Wilmington/Carolina Beach this past weekend theorizing about all the different loose ends and mysteries of the show. If you want a semi-spoiler of where this show will be going this season, check out this latest story on www.ew.com, the best site to find whacked out theories and recaps of my favorite show.
6 - My love affair with ABDC still continues. I literally could and do watch the reruns of this show over and over and over again and I am continuously amazed by these kids' talent. I wish I had some sense of rhythm like they do. But alas, my role seems to be relegated to just appreciating their off-the-charts talent. I believe that the final two is going to come down to Beat Freaks and Qwest crew - they are both just ridiculously awesome.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Black Holes and Paradigm Shifts
Merriam-Webster's dictionary states that a black hole is a celestial object that has a gravitational field so strong that light cannot escape it and that it is believed to be created especially in the collapse of a very massive star. Today's economic climate pretty much fits that description in my opinion and it is hard to not caught up in all the swirling bad news that surrounds it day in and day out. The 24-hr news continuously reports that this company is laying off thousands of people, that company is laying off thousands more, the other one is going bankrupt, and it seems to be an unstoppable force with no end in sight. And it's not like they are wrong - it is all true. Thousands of dollars are being lost, jobs are dropping out of sight, and people are feeling a strong pinch. What started as just a housing market problem has leaked over into the entire fabric of the American economy and there is not a sector that is feeling the pinch (with the exception of the dastardly Exxon Mobil).
The thing is, I think this is going to be a paradigm shift in the spending of the typical American consumer and that business needs to adjust to this new environment if it is ever to escape the black hole that it currently is in. I don't know if regular marketing ploys are going to work anymore and I believe that social media utilizing Web 2.0 marketing tactics is the way to go. It just makes sense. I am constantly bombarded day in and day out with advertisements toting how such and such product is going to change my life. And it's everywhere - TV, internet, magazines, billboards, vehicles, emails, sporting events, movies - the list goes on and on. Honestly, where can you go where you are not marketed to? And now, not only am I tired of being constantly sold to, but I don't even have the money in my pocket to buy what I am being promised will revolutionize my life. If I spend my hard-earned dollars, it is going to be on something that I am looking for and find attractive. I want to be in the driver's seat, not riding shotgun.
That is why I believe that Web 2.0 is the way the consumer is going to go. Web 2.0 is all about information and the onus is put on the consumer's own search and research. Selling your product is not going to be about the coolest ad - it is going to be about where I can find more information and what other people are saying about the product. And the companies that can figure this out are going to be the ones that make it through this black hole.
Because this isn't a real black hole - there will be an end at some point in time. But there is going to be a lot of pain and suffering by a lot of people for a while. And more companies and jobs will fall victim to bankruptcy and liquidation before we reach the bottom. For example, even with the complete devastation in the housing market, it is amazing that there is still a glut of builders and trade contractors out there - there has not been enough consolidation, mergers, and acquisitions happening in light of the economic conditions that we are facing. This will have to happen if we are ever going to get out of this mess.
It will be interesting to see what happens over the course of this year, both personally and from an outsider's perspective. In the meantime, I am taking a lot of deep breaths and remembering that there is a sovereign God who loves me and will take care of me, if I truly believe in Him and His promises.
The thing is, I think this is going to be a paradigm shift in the spending of the typical American consumer and that business needs to adjust to this new environment if it is ever to escape the black hole that it currently is in. I don't know if regular marketing ploys are going to work anymore and I believe that social media utilizing Web 2.0 marketing tactics is the way to go. It just makes sense. I am constantly bombarded day in and day out with advertisements toting how such and such product is going to change my life. And it's everywhere - TV, internet, magazines, billboards, vehicles, emails, sporting events, movies - the list goes on and on. Honestly, where can you go where you are not marketed to? And now, not only am I tired of being constantly sold to, but I don't even have the money in my pocket to buy what I am being promised will revolutionize my life. If I spend my hard-earned dollars, it is going to be on something that I am looking for and find attractive. I want to be in the driver's seat, not riding shotgun.
That is why I believe that Web 2.0 is the way the consumer is going to go. Web 2.0 is all about information and the onus is put on the consumer's own search and research. Selling your product is not going to be about the coolest ad - it is going to be about where I can find more information and what other people are saying about the product. And the companies that can figure this out are going to be the ones that make it through this black hole.
Because this isn't a real black hole - there will be an end at some point in time. But there is going to be a lot of pain and suffering by a lot of people for a while. And more companies and jobs will fall victim to bankruptcy and liquidation before we reach the bottom. For example, even with the complete devastation in the housing market, it is amazing that there is still a glut of builders and trade contractors out there - there has not been enough consolidation, mergers, and acquisitions happening in light of the economic conditions that we are facing. This will have to happen if we are ever going to get out of this mess.
It will be interesting to see what happens over the course of this year, both personally and from an outsider's perspective. In the meantime, I am taking a lot of deep breaths and remembering that there is a sovereign God who loves me and will take care of me, if I truly believe in Him and His promises.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
This is a Great Story
Click on the link for a great story pertaining to the creativeness of one guy in the job market. It encourages me!
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Forgive Me...
This is my blog, my corner of the universe, and as such I am going to take a moment, be selfish and pat myself on the back for making so many correct predictions this past year. This is not humble of me and it will be showing a side of myself that I am acutely aware of and keep under wraps most of the time. But I can't help myself because it is kind of uncanny how many things I correctly called way back in January of this year (see this link for my original post).
1 - I was right on the economy. Fact is, being in the housing industry puts you on the forefront of what is actually happening in the American economy, and I could have told you back in August of 2006 that we were headed for troubled times. But the idiots in Washington put their heads in the sand and refused to say that the economy was in trouble - on the other hand, there was no other way for them to play it. It was a Catch 22 - if the government acknowledged that something was wrong in the economy, things would have collapsed a lot sooner than they did. It's all about politics and spin and if the spin is negative, the markets will come crashing down.
2 - I was right on the Democrats winning the White House. I must admit, I don't like it - I don't like having a Democrat in the White House. But McCain ran one of the poorest campaigns I have ever seen - what happened to him? I know he has the experience and the record and there is not a person who has served his country more faithfully than he has, but he became muzzled and the experienced statesman that he is never publicly showed itself. I also accurately called that he would have a chance if he picked Sarah Palin as his VP - she had a shining moment at her GOP convention speech, but was then quickly derailed by the media, late-night comedians, and herself. And I don't think he would have had a better shot if he had picked someone else as his Vice Presidential running mate. The public bought into Barack's message a long time ago and the Republican party shot itself in the foot with all of the corruption scandals and mishandling of the power they had. I think it is absolutely wonderful how many people turned out to vote in this election - that is amazing and incredible and right - too many men and women have sacrificed their lives to give us that right, and to not vote is to do them a dishonor and disrespect our own freedom and rights. BUT, I am just wondering how many people are going to be severely disappointed when all the changes promised don't happen. The Democrats will become drunk with their power, just like the Republicans did, and Washington will remain the way it has always been. THAT is politics and THAT is the reality of the political system that we live in. "Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely".
3 - I happened to be totally right about the Giants winning the Super Bowl - which was a fluke guess, but still the correct one! Yay for the downfall of the Patriots :).
4 - I was correct about Into the Wild not winning the Best Picture, but I still maintain that it should have.
5 - I was also correct about the bright color trend continuing.
6 - I also correctly predicted that the writers strike would last into the Spring 2008 TV season, though thankfully it did end in time for new episodes of Lost to be aired - thank the Good Lord above!
7 - I am right about the troops not being pulled out of Iraq until at least 2010. Though Obama has promised a total immediate withdrawal, the reality of the situation will not allow this to be feasible until at least 2 years into his presidency.
8- Though, this prediction came just a week ago, I did correctly predict that gas prices would fall to $1.99 on the eve of the election (Karen G can back me up on this one!), and, guess what! They did! Anyone who tells me that the oil companies do not fix their prices and do not control the politics in Washington (dad) needs to then explain to me the coincidence of the dramatic drop in gas prices during the election. I mean seriously - $1.99 gas - when was the last time that we saw $1.99 gas!? 2005? I don't care that the "market" has all of the sudden seen such a dramatic slip in demand. You tell me that the market has seen a slip in demand when prices are back to $4 next summer. I don't see a slip in demand - there is still plenty of traffic on 66 and 495 and even around the little town of Warrenton - more traffic in fact! Maybe the bubble of Northern Virginia keeps me from seeing the decline in demand, but I just don't see it. No, the conspiracy theorist in me says that the politics of oil run SO much deeper than any of us really know, and that there is more going on behind the scene. And in fact, if the gas prices were to accurately reflect the price of oil on the market, I believe that the prices should be even lower than they are.
9 - I correctly predicted that I would be moving this year! I am really excited about this - I have been keeping it kind of under wraps, but I recently found out that I will be moving (still in Warrenton, back to where I originally started 2 years ago), but I will be living on my own, which will be something completely new and exciting. I have never lived completely on my own and I'm excited/nervous to see what this new arrangement has in store for me.
And finally, number 10 - I correctly predicted that our new business venture, Signature WoodCrafters would be successful. Being involved with this start-up has been one of the hardest things I have ever worked on. Every day is a battle for survival, which is capitalism at its core. I have always tried to work hard and do my best at whatever I'm given to do, but until the work itself is a day to day struggle for survival, I have found out that I didn't know what it truly meant to work hard. It is not easy and is a battle day in and day out. Though we will probably only break even this year with this venture, that is still a victory, because I don't know many start-ups that have turned a profit in their first year, considering the massive advertising costs needed to get your name into the market. BUT, as hard as it has been, I don't know if I would trade this year for anything else. It has been exciting, taxing, draining, thrilling, hard, and totally worth being involved in. It has helped saved the rest of my coworkers' jobs, has given our company a new source of revenue, and taught me a ton - I really couldn't ask for more. I am really lucky to have the opportunities that I have at my company.
So, I ask for all of my legions of readers (all 2 of you :)) to forgive me for applauding myself and bragging about making some correct predictions about this year. And the fact that I hedged all of my bets by originally predicting that none of my predictions would come true, should negate everything that I have congratulated myself on :). And I will return back to my humble self and say with all sincere humility that it is just luck that I gave an accurate read on this stuff. To truly test my clairvoyance, I will have to accurately predict social, political, and international trends for at least two years in a row. And then if that happens, I will proudly take on Professor Larry Sabato's recently relinquished mantle of the "most accurate political prognosticator" :).
1 - I was right on the economy. Fact is, being in the housing industry puts you on the forefront of what is actually happening in the American economy, and I could have told you back in August of 2006 that we were headed for troubled times. But the idiots in Washington put their heads in the sand and refused to say that the economy was in trouble - on the other hand, there was no other way for them to play it. It was a Catch 22 - if the government acknowledged that something was wrong in the economy, things would have collapsed a lot sooner than they did. It's all about politics and spin and if the spin is negative, the markets will come crashing down.
2 - I was right on the Democrats winning the White House. I must admit, I don't like it - I don't like having a Democrat in the White House. But McCain ran one of the poorest campaigns I have ever seen - what happened to him? I know he has the experience and the record and there is not a person who has served his country more faithfully than he has, but he became muzzled and the experienced statesman that he is never publicly showed itself. I also accurately called that he would have a chance if he picked Sarah Palin as his VP - she had a shining moment at her GOP convention speech, but was then quickly derailed by the media, late-night comedians, and herself. And I don't think he would have had a better shot if he had picked someone else as his Vice Presidential running mate. The public bought into Barack's message a long time ago and the Republican party shot itself in the foot with all of the corruption scandals and mishandling of the power they had. I think it is absolutely wonderful how many people turned out to vote in this election - that is amazing and incredible and right - too many men and women have sacrificed their lives to give us that right, and to not vote is to do them a dishonor and disrespect our own freedom and rights. BUT, I am just wondering how many people are going to be severely disappointed when all the changes promised don't happen. The Democrats will become drunk with their power, just like the Republicans did, and Washington will remain the way it has always been. THAT is politics and THAT is the reality of the political system that we live in. "Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely".
3 - I happened to be totally right about the Giants winning the Super Bowl - which was a fluke guess, but still the correct one! Yay for the downfall of the Patriots :).
4 - I was correct about Into the Wild not winning the Best Picture, but I still maintain that it should have.
5 - I was also correct about the bright color trend continuing.
6 - I also correctly predicted that the writers strike would last into the Spring 2008 TV season, though thankfully it did end in time for new episodes of Lost to be aired - thank the Good Lord above!
7 - I am right about the troops not being pulled out of Iraq until at least 2010. Though Obama has promised a total immediate withdrawal, the reality of the situation will not allow this to be feasible until at least 2 years into his presidency.
8- Though, this prediction came just a week ago, I did correctly predict that gas prices would fall to $1.99 on the eve of the election (Karen G can back me up on this one!), and, guess what! They did! Anyone who tells me that the oil companies do not fix their prices and do not control the politics in Washington (dad) needs to then explain to me the coincidence of the dramatic drop in gas prices during the election. I mean seriously - $1.99 gas - when was the last time that we saw $1.99 gas!? 2005? I don't care that the "market" has all of the sudden seen such a dramatic slip in demand. You tell me that the market has seen a slip in demand when prices are back to $4 next summer. I don't see a slip in demand - there is still plenty of traffic on 66 and 495 and even around the little town of Warrenton - more traffic in fact! Maybe the bubble of Northern Virginia keeps me from seeing the decline in demand, but I just don't see it. No, the conspiracy theorist in me says that the politics of oil run SO much deeper than any of us really know, and that there is more going on behind the scene. And in fact, if the gas prices were to accurately reflect the price of oil on the market, I believe that the prices should be even lower than they are.
9 - I correctly predicted that I would be moving this year! I am really excited about this - I have been keeping it kind of under wraps, but I recently found out that I will be moving (still in Warrenton, back to where I originally started 2 years ago), but I will be living on my own, which will be something completely new and exciting. I have never lived completely on my own and I'm excited/nervous to see what this new arrangement has in store for me.
And finally, number 10 - I correctly predicted that our new business venture, Signature WoodCrafters would be successful. Being involved with this start-up has been one of the hardest things I have ever worked on. Every day is a battle for survival, which is capitalism at its core. I have always tried to work hard and do my best at whatever I'm given to do, but until the work itself is a day to day struggle for survival, I have found out that I didn't know what it truly meant to work hard. It is not easy and is a battle day in and day out. Though we will probably only break even this year with this venture, that is still a victory, because I don't know many start-ups that have turned a profit in their first year, considering the massive advertising costs needed to get your name into the market. BUT, as hard as it has been, I don't know if I would trade this year for anything else. It has been exciting, taxing, draining, thrilling, hard, and totally worth being involved in. It has helped saved the rest of my coworkers' jobs, has given our company a new source of revenue, and taught me a ton - I really couldn't ask for more. I am really lucky to have the opportunities that I have at my company.
So, I ask for all of my legions of readers (all 2 of you :)) to forgive me for applauding myself and bragging about making some correct predictions about this year. And the fact that I hedged all of my bets by originally predicting that none of my predictions would come true, should negate everything that I have congratulated myself on :). And I will return back to my humble self and say with all sincere humility that it is just luck that I gave an accurate read on this stuff. To truly test my clairvoyance, I will have to accurately predict social, political, and international trends for at least two years in a row. And then if that happens, I will proudly take on Professor Larry Sabato's recently relinquished mantle of the "most accurate political prognosticator" :).
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Not Making This One Up...
Are you wondering why we have to spend $700 billion dollars of tax money to bail out private companies and save the entire global economy? Read THIS ARTICLE, from the New York Times written all the way back in 1999. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophesy, looking back, isn't it? And just think - the more agencies and private companies that the government involves itself in, the more times this exact same scenario will be played out...
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Chaos on Wall Street?
What is going on with the financial markets? Is it really bad? And how did we get here? And is it over?
I wish I knew - but the problem of a free market economy and capitalism is that these downward spirals happen and sometimes take a while to get out of. This is not the Great Depression - we don't have breadlines for the majority of the nation yet.
This article is one of the best that I have read while trying to sift through the various news media outlets to find out the truth about what is going on. It details why we are in the mess that we are in, and why this is not going to be over anytime soon unfortunately. And also why no politician is going to be able to fix this problem, despite their promises of "regulation" (because Sarbanes-Oxley works soooo well...riiightt). No, unfortunately, the way that this problem is going to be fixed is banks need to start giving out loans again (but only to those who are fiscally responsible - ie, buy and pay what they truly can afford!), commodity prices and inflation need to go down, the dollar needs to strengthen, and the drop in pricing for houses needs to bottom out.
And while we are blaming the housing industry/market, let's also throw some of that blame onto Alan Greenspan during his reign at the Fed that allowed these interest rates to increase inflation above the average American's wage, and make borrowing money (ie, "credit") easier than it should have been for that American. So those people buying the McMansions (that are now foreclosing in droves), 4 luxury cars, and sending their kids to private school were overextending themselves after all, and now can't pay their bills and thus are sending Wall Street into turmoil, because they can't pay back the amount of debt they owe and have to foreclose and the banks have to write down that debt. Coupled with the fact that someone decided it would be great to make some money off of the amount of debt that someone else owes, we find ourselves in a "credit crisis". Yeah, that was a brilliant idea - make money off of negative money - that'll work! Because eventually that money will be paid off right, and since it is accumulating interest, that lump sum will be worth even more? Turns out nope - they actually couldn't pay back the loan, because they never had the money in the first place - and YET someone approved them for a loan. And then it gets all technical with the types of loans given out - adjustable interest percentage rates mortgages or interest only loans, where none of the principal was being paid down, and the loan money kept going up and up - and Wall Street placed bets on that, never foreseeing that the assets that people were banking on (their homes) were NEVER WORTH THAT MUCH!
Now that the housing bubble has burst and continues to plunge, and continues to be exasperated by Wall Street's lack of foresight, we the consumer will continue to suffer, because the commodities that we need to go down (energy, inflation, agriculture) continue to the do the opposite - they go up, weakening our dollar and deflate the purchasing power of the average American because companies have to raise their prices in order to account for the cost of commodities going up.
It is making me nervous that the government continues to bail out these companies on Wall Street (at least some of my money is being used to save some people's jobs and livelihoods though), because the government has moved into uncharted waters in terms of involvement on Wall Street. I am not a fan of "big" government, but in this era of socialist democracy, I guess there is not a way to avoid it. But when I hear stories of how two government workers had to be hired in order to do another government worker's job because she was such a mess and yet was never fired - it brings a sick feeling to my stomach (and that is a true story).
And while people continue to buy IPods, Blackberries, and Rock Band 2, you can't say that we have reached Great Depression levels - sure, we are in a recession, but while people continue to buy "stuff" that is, in the end, non-essential to their existence, there is still some faith to be had in our economy. And there doesn't seem to be a shortage of work (just go to Monster.com, or careerbuilder.com) just yet, so again, there are reasons to remain confident and not hide in the bunker yet - or stuff all your cash under your mattress.
I wish I knew - but the problem of a free market economy and capitalism is that these downward spirals happen and sometimes take a while to get out of. This is not the Great Depression - we don't have breadlines for the majority of the nation yet.
This article is one of the best that I have read while trying to sift through the various news media outlets to find out the truth about what is going on. It details why we are in the mess that we are in, and why this is not going to be over anytime soon unfortunately. And also why no politician is going to be able to fix this problem, despite their promises of "regulation" (because Sarbanes-Oxley works soooo well...riiightt). No, unfortunately, the way that this problem is going to be fixed is banks need to start giving out loans again (but only to those who are fiscally responsible - ie, buy and pay what they truly can afford!), commodity prices and inflation need to go down, the dollar needs to strengthen, and the drop in pricing for houses needs to bottom out.
And while we are blaming the housing industry/market, let's also throw some of that blame onto Alan Greenspan during his reign at the Fed that allowed these interest rates to increase inflation above the average American's wage, and make borrowing money (ie, "credit") easier than it should have been for that American. So those people buying the McMansions (that are now foreclosing in droves), 4 luxury cars, and sending their kids to private school were overextending themselves after all, and now can't pay their bills and thus are sending Wall Street into turmoil, because they can't pay back the amount of debt they owe and have to foreclose and the banks have to write down that debt. Coupled with the fact that someone decided it would be great to make some money off of the amount of debt that someone else owes, we find ourselves in a "credit crisis". Yeah, that was a brilliant idea - make money off of negative money - that'll work! Because eventually that money will be paid off right, and since it is accumulating interest, that lump sum will be worth even more? Turns out nope - they actually couldn't pay back the loan, because they never had the money in the first place - and YET someone approved them for a loan. And then it gets all technical with the types of loans given out - adjustable interest percentage rates mortgages or interest only loans, where none of the principal was being paid down, and the loan money kept going up and up - and Wall Street placed bets on that, never foreseeing that the assets that people were banking on (their homes) were NEVER WORTH THAT MUCH!
Now that the housing bubble has burst and continues to plunge, and continues to be exasperated by Wall Street's lack of foresight, we the consumer will continue to suffer, because the commodities that we need to go down (energy, inflation, agriculture) continue to the do the opposite - they go up, weakening our dollar and deflate the purchasing power of the average American because companies have to raise their prices in order to account for the cost of commodities going up.
It is making me nervous that the government continues to bail out these companies on Wall Street (at least some of my money is being used to save some people's jobs and livelihoods though), because the government has moved into uncharted waters in terms of involvement on Wall Street. I am not a fan of "big" government, but in this era of socialist democracy, I guess there is not a way to avoid it. But when I hear stories of how two government workers had to be hired in order to do another government worker's job because she was such a mess and yet was never fired - it brings a sick feeling to my stomach (and that is a true story).
And while people continue to buy IPods, Blackberries, and Rock Band 2, you can't say that we have reached Great Depression levels - sure, we are in a recession, but while people continue to buy "stuff" that is, in the end, non-essential to their existence, there is still some faith to be had in our economy. And there doesn't seem to be a shortage of work (just go to Monster.com, or careerbuilder.com) just yet, so again, there are reasons to remain confident and not hide in the bunker yet - or stuff all your cash under your mattress.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
50/50 on my 2008 Predictions :)
I feel like I should turn into John McGaughlin or Bill O'Reilly now because 5 out of the 10 predictions I made have come true - and it's only March! :) This of course could be because they were pretty simple and obvious predictions...
The Five that have come True are...
1. The US Economy is in a recession - Energy prices and the credit crunch continue to spell doom, doom, DOOM on the NYSE and the housing market shows no signs of a recovery anytime soon. And as the dollar continues to drastically weaken and more and more companies are having to be bailed out by the Fed, the question is, where is the bottom, will the economy affect the election (of course), will Americans stop spending money they don't have (no), and will the globalization of the marketplace be the undoing of the affluence of America? I think there are a lot of hard times ahead and people are going to be caught unawares and wake up one morning and the way of life that they have become accustomed to will be gone - kind of like the Biblical famines of old when people were constantly put on the brink of destruction because of crop failures or locust plagues - we need a Joseph who will help us save and put away stores of crops to protect us against the coming famine.
2. The Giants will win the Super Bowl - Turns out they did win the Super Bowl and in the most dramatic of fashions - that was a game to be remembered for the ages.
3. The Bright color trend in clothing will continue - I think I was more than dead-on this one since every single magazine is splashed with pages and pages of bold colors.
4. Into the Wild won't win the Best Picture Oscar - and unfortunately it didn't. But I still think it was the best movie of the 2007 season. I haven't seen "No Country for Old Men", but I don't really want to see a movie about a ruthless serial killer relentlessly pursuing some guy who stole a bunch of drugs from a drug deal gone awry.
5. Signature WoodCrafters, Signature Companies' new consumer-direct business venture will be successful - Luckily, I was correct with this prediction, and thank goodness! To date we have generated great lead responses, which is incredible. Here's hoping that the next three months will bring just as many, if not more, lead responses for our business!
And here's another prediction for 2008 - I unfortunately will not win my company's March Madness pool - dang Duke, Georgetown, and Pittsburgh. Here's hoping that Davidson pulls off two more upsets and makes it into the Final Four - that would be awesome.
The Five that have come True are...
1. The US Economy is in a recession - Energy prices and the credit crunch continue to spell doom, doom, DOOM on the NYSE and the housing market shows no signs of a recovery anytime soon. And as the dollar continues to drastically weaken and more and more companies are having to be bailed out by the Fed, the question is, where is the bottom, will the economy affect the election (of course), will Americans stop spending money they don't have (no), and will the globalization of the marketplace be the undoing of the affluence of America? I think there are a lot of hard times ahead and people are going to be caught unawares and wake up one morning and the way of life that they have become accustomed to will be gone - kind of like the Biblical famines of old when people were constantly put on the brink of destruction because of crop failures or locust plagues - we need a Joseph who will help us save and put away stores of crops to protect us against the coming famine.
2. The Giants will win the Super Bowl - Turns out they did win the Super Bowl and in the most dramatic of fashions - that was a game to be remembered for the ages.
3. The Bright color trend in clothing will continue - I think I was more than dead-on this one since every single magazine is splashed with pages and pages of bold colors.
4. Into the Wild won't win the Best Picture Oscar - and unfortunately it didn't. But I still think it was the best movie of the 2007 season. I haven't seen "No Country for Old Men", but I don't really want to see a movie about a ruthless serial killer relentlessly pursuing some guy who stole a bunch of drugs from a drug deal gone awry.
5. Signature WoodCrafters, Signature Companies' new consumer-direct business venture will be successful - Luckily, I was correct with this prediction, and thank goodness! To date we have generated great lead responses, which is incredible. Here's hoping that the next three months will bring just as many, if not more, lead responses for our business!
And here's another prediction for 2008 - I unfortunately will not win my company's March Madness pool - dang Duke, Georgetown, and Pittsburgh. Here's hoping that Davidson pulls off two more upsets and makes it into the Final Four - that would be awesome.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Through the Looking Glass - What I think the Year 2008 will bring
There are many pundit shows out there that like to make predictions on the current year, and in light of that I wanted to try to make some predictions and see if they actually come true. I figure, why not?
1. The United States economy will enter into a recession.
Actually in terms of this prediction, I think we are already there - the economists just don't want to say that word. The housing market is not going to come back anytime soon - certainly not this year, and most likely not next year. Being in the housing market industry, we will be down 50% in revenues from just two years ago. It is absolutely incredible. We were setting records in terms of our revenues and to go so fast from such an economic boom to a bust has been kind of shocking. A lot of companies in our industry are going out of business now because they can't handle the pressure of the downturn.
The thing that is going to make the US economy go into a recession is the subprime meltdown that occurred this past August. CEOs of major credit companies are being ousted left and right over their failure to make sound financial decisions. The fallout from all of this is that now the job market is being effected. People are being laid off in the thousands, and with the jobs disappearing, the consumer will not be spending money. The fact that gas and energy prices are refusing to come down will also (and has) negatively effect the overall economy and consumer's spending power. The only thing that is keeping us afloat is that the consumer hasn't stopped spending yet. But I predict that that won't last much longer - or it will become much more difficult to pay the bills and spend money on big ticket items.
2. A Democrat will win the Presidential election, unless Mike Huckabee wins the Republican nomination.
The tide has turned in American politics. The scandals and abuse of power that runs rampant on Capitol Hill and in the White House has tired the American public. And the public associates that with just one political party and not politics itself. Honestly, if a Democrat wins the White House, I don't think that much will change in terms of American politics. There will always be abuse of power in the White House, because that is the precedent that has been set - not by Bush, but all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt - who changed the powers of the US Presidency because of the Great Depression. Ever since FDR, each American president has extended the powers of the Oval Office to fit his agenda. Whoever is newly elected will end up doing the same. Republicans and Democrats seem to be like the zebra - one is black with white stripes while the other is white with black stripes - basically, it's the same animal, any way that you look at it.
The only reason I give Mike Huckabee a chance is because he has Chuck Norris in his corner and he was a Baptist minister and I like the things that I've read about him. He seems very likeable.
3. US Troops won't begin to pull out of Iraq until 2010, at the least.
It is foolish to think that the Iraq War will be over anytime soon. From the moment that we invaded the country in 2002, I, a lowly foreign affairs student, knew that we would be in the region for at least a decade. The ethnic factions (and ethnic is probably not the right word) that are there - the Sunnis, the Shias, and the Kurds will all kill each other if we leave - which they do to an extent now. But I feel like if the troops pulled out it would turn into genocide. Trying to establish a democracy with these three factions is so stupid. What needs to happen is that the state of Iraq needs to be demised and changed into three separate countries. But there are two problems in doing that - one, is that if you create a Kurd state, you create a rallying point for the Kurds that reside in Turkey and cause them to rise up in rebellion against the Turks as they try to break off from Turkey and join the new Kurd state. The second is that if you create a Shia state, you give Iran a country to completely go after. They would try to annex that state into themselves, or at the least try to set up a puppet government that they could run. Iran has already tried to do this before, but funny enough, Saddam Hussein stopped that from happening.
4. Into the Wild won't win the Oscar for Best Picture - But it should!
This is the most underrated movie of the year - far better than Atonement. Atonement was actually kind of awful - there is nothing special about it.
5. The Writer's Guild of America will hold out and not settle with the studios in order to save the spring 2008 TV season. The Fall 2008 season might come to fruition, but even that might not happen.
Therefore bad reality shows will dominate the airwaves causing the American public to either lose all their brain cells or turn off their television sets to actually read!
6. The NY Giants will win the Super Bowl.
I actually don't believe this prediction at all - I think the Patriots will destroy the Giants - destroy them with a capital D! BUT I will root for the underdog nonetheless :).
7. Signature's new business venture, Signature WoodCrafters will take off and save lots of jobs at my company!
This prediction I completely believe in. I think there is a whole market out there that we have barely begun to tap and though there are some competitors out there, we can create a niche for ourselves and win! If you know anyone that wants to re-do their kitchen cabinets and countertops or change their carpet-grade stairs to hardwood, let me know!
8. The bright color trend will continue on through the spring and fall fashion seasons.
I love color - I love, love, love it. And I love bright colors. I think that this trend will continue because there are a lot of other people who feel the same that I do!
9. I will end up moving somewhere different.
I only think this because I have moved every year since graduating college. It would be nice to settle down somewhere, but I don't see the reality of that happening anytime soon. But we'll see.
10. None of these will come true.
This is so I hedge all my bets :).
1. The United States economy will enter into a recession.
Actually in terms of this prediction, I think we are already there - the economists just don't want to say that word. The housing market is not going to come back anytime soon - certainly not this year, and most likely not next year. Being in the housing market industry, we will be down 50% in revenues from just two years ago. It is absolutely incredible. We were setting records in terms of our revenues and to go so fast from such an economic boom to a bust has been kind of shocking. A lot of companies in our industry are going out of business now because they can't handle the pressure of the downturn.
The thing that is going to make the US economy go into a recession is the subprime meltdown that occurred this past August. CEOs of major credit companies are being ousted left and right over their failure to make sound financial decisions. The fallout from all of this is that now the job market is being effected. People are being laid off in the thousands, and with the jobs disappearing, the consumer will not be spending money. The fact that gas and energy prices are refusing to come down will also (and has) negatively effect the overall economy and consumer's spending power. The only thing that is keeping us afloat is that the consumer hasn't stopped spending yet. But I predict that that won't last much longer - or it will become much more difficult to pay the bills and spend money on big ticket items.
2. A Democrat will win the Presidential election, unless Mike Huckabee wins the Republican nomination.
The tide has turned in American politics. The scandals and abuse of power that runs rampant on Capitol Hill and in the White House has tired the American public. And the public associates that with just one political party and not politics itself. Honestly, if a Democrat wins the White House, I don't think that much will change in terms of American politics. There will always be abuse of power in the White House, because that is the precedent that has been set - not by Bush, but all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt - who changed the powers of the US Presidency because of the Great Depression. Ever since FDR, each American president has extended the powers of the Oval Office to fit his agenda. Whoever is newly elected will end up doing the same. Republicans and Democrats seem to be like the zebra - one is black with white stripes while the other is white with black stripes - basically, it's the same animal, any way that you look at it.
The only reason I give Mike Huckabee a chance is because he has Chuck Norris in his corner and he was a Baptist minister and I like the things that I've read about him. He seems very likeable.
3. US Troops won't begin to pull out of Iraq until 2010, at the least.
It is foolish to think that the Iraq War will be over anytime soon. From the moment that we invaded the country in 2002, I, a lowly foreign affairs student, knew that we would be in the region for at least a decade. The ethnic factions (and ethnic is probably not the right word) that are there - the Sunnis, the Shias, and the Kurds will all kill each other if we leave - which they do to an extent now. But I feel like if the troops pulled out it would turn into genocide. Trying to establish a democracy with these three factions is so stupid. What needs to happen is that the state of Iraq needs to be demised and changed into three separate countries. But there are two problems in doing that - one, is that if you create a Kurd state, you create a rallying point for the Kurds that reside in Turkey and cause them to rise up in rebellion against the Turks as they try to break off from Turkey and join the new Kurd state. The second is that if you create a Shia state, you give Iran a country to completely go after. They would try to annex that state into themselves, or at the least try to set up a puppet government that they could run. Iran has already tried to do this before, but funny enough, Saddam Hussein stopped that from happening.
4. Into the Wild won't win the Oscar for Best Picture - But it should!
This is the most underrated movie of the year - far better than Atonement. Atonement was actually kind of awful - there is nothing special about it.
5. The Writer's Guild of America will hold out and not settle with the studios in order to save the spring 2008 TV season. The Fall 2008 season might come to fruition, but even that might not happen.
Therefore bad reality shows will dominate the airwaves causing the American public to either lose all their brain cells or turn off their television sets to actually read!
6. The NY Giants will win the Super Bowl.
I actually don't believe this prediction at all - I think the Patriots will destroy the Giants - destroy them with a capital D! BUT I will root for the underdog nonetheless :).
7. Signature's new business venture, Signature WoodCrafters will take off and save lots of jobs at my company!
This prediction I completely believe in. I think there is a whole market out there that we have barely begun to tap and though there are some competitors out there, we can create a niche for ourselves and win! If you know anyone that wants to re-do their kitchen cabinets and countertops or change their carpet-grade stairs to hardwood, let me know!
8. The bright color trend will continue on through the spring and fall fashion seasons.
I love color - I love, love, love it. And I love bright colors. I think that this trend will continue because there are a lot of other people who feel the same that I do!
9. I will end up moving somewhere different.
I only think this because I have moved every year since graduating college. It would be nice to settle down somewhere, but I don't see the reality of that happening anytime soon. But we'll see.
10. None of these will come true.
This is so I hedge all my bets :).
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